LVZ Q2 2010 Report

Published on 28 July 2010

Though the economy is recovering/growing, investors in equity markets seem to disagree.  After beginning the year with anticipation for growth, domestic markets were derailed by debt problems in the EU and the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico.  Add to these prominent stories of persistently weak employment data, high US debt levels and following the high GDP level reached in 4Q09, prospects for 2010 became more tentative.

 We continue to see strength in the economy but GDP comparisons to previous recoveries show this time around to be relatively weak, leaving doubt about sustainability and the ability to create jobs.  Because of this, we are reading investor sentiment to be waning.  We should experience increased volatility, trending positive toward year-end as growth numbers stabilize.  It won’t be high growth – but it will be growth.

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Dr. Genetski – July Report

Published on 19 July 2010

Preliminary numbers suggest that spending grew at a 5%-6% annual rate in the second quarter.  With inflation close to 1%, it means that real growth was roughly in the vicinity of 4%-5%.  Moreover, fairly strong numbers for new orders suggest that the economy will continue to expand in period immediately ahead.

The economic numbers tell us where the economy has been.  Stock prices often tell us where investors expect the economy to go.  One of the reasons that stock prices often respond positively or negatively in advance of the economy is because stock prices are more sensitive to monetary policy changes than the overall economy.

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